Renewable electricity capacity across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is expected to more than double over the next six years, reaching almost 200 GW by 2031, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest Renewables 2026 report. The forecast points to approximately 122 GW of additional renewable capacity between 2026 and 2031, with utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) projects accounting for the largest share of the expansion. The report, published on November 6, identifies energy security concerns, rising electricity demand and stronger corporate procurement as important factors supporting the region’s renewable energy growth.
Utility-scale solar PV is projected to contribute almost 80% of the 122 GW forecast additions. Onshore wind is expected to account for 13%, while distributed solar PV is projected to contribute another 10%. Smaller additions are also expected from pumped-storage hydropower. These shares are rounded estimates reported by the IEA. The resulting technology mix indicates that large solar installations will remain the principal source of new renewable electricity capacity across the region, while wind and distributed generation provide additional growth.
By 2031, solar PV is forecast to represent 75% of MENA’s installed renewable electricity capacity, giving the region the highest solar share among global regions in the IEA's assessment. The agency attributes this concentration to competitive project economics, strong solar resources and the advantages of large-scale procurement. In some markets, access to land and state-backed financing arrangements also support the development of utility-scale projects.
Electricity demand is another important driver. Population growth and expanding economic activity are increasing consumption across the region, while cooling requirements, desalination facilities and data centres are adding to power-system demand. The IEA also identifies emerging industrial requirements associated with low-emissions aluminium, steel and fertiliser production. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco and Algeria have recently recorded peak electricity loads, while Oman has raised its demand outlook in response to expanding industrial and commercial consumption.
The forecast also points to a significant acceleration in Saudi Arabia’s renewable deployment. The IEA expects the country’s annual renewable capacity expansion to increase fivefold between 2026 and 2031. The United Arab Emirates is also expected to record stronger growth. These projections reflect the scale of renewable procurement and development activity in the Gulf, although the report’s regional outlook does not imply that all announced projects will be commissioned within the forecast period.
The outlook is not without constraints. The IEA has kept its overall MENA renewable forecast broadly unchanged from the previous edition, as stronger corporate demand, project expansions and higher national targets offset weaker prospects for renewable hydrogen development. Supply-chain disruption and near-term cost uncertainty associated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could delay some planned projects. However, the agency does not expect these near-term pressures to undermine the region’s longer-term renewable energy ambitions or the overall project pipeline.
The report’s projections also underline the importance of infrastructure capable of accommodating a much larger share of variable renewable generation. Expanding transmission networks, improving grid flexibility and deploying energy storage will be necessary to manage the growing contribution from solar and wind. This is particularly relevant for markets where electricity demand is rising rapidly and renewable projects are being developed at a large scale.
MENA’s projected growth therefore represents more than an increase in renewable generation capacity. It reflects the growing role of solar and wind in meeting electricity demand, supporting industrial development and reducing exposure to imported energy supplies. Whether the region reaches the projected level by 2031 will depend on the pace of project execution, grid investment, financing and the ability of supply chains to withstand regional disruptions.