India’s expansion of renewable electricity has delivered more than US$100 billion in savings on coal and natural gas imports between 2011 and 2025, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) India Renewable Energy Market Report 2026. Released on November 3 at the Bharat Renewable Energy Summit in New Delhi, the report examines how renewable deployment is changing India’s energy security, investment prospects and position in international clean energy markets. It also identifies the country’s growing solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing industry as an opportunity to diversify global supply chains that remain concentrated in a small number of manufacturing economies.
The import savings reflect the contribution of solar PV, wind and bioenergy to domestic electricity supply. The IEA estimates that, without the additional capacity from these three sources installed since 2010, India’s coal imports in 2025 would have been approximately 110 million tonnes higher. The report also expects cumulative savings on coal and natural gas imports to more than double by 2030. These estimates illustrate how domestically generated renewable electricity can reduce exposure to international fuel prices and supply disruptions, although they do not imply that renewable power has eliminated India’s dependence on imported energy.
India’s renewable power capacity has almost quadrupled over the past decade, crossing 300 GW in 2026, the IEA reported. The country is now the world’s second-fastest-growing renewables market and the second-largest manufacturer of solar PV modules. India also achieved its target of obtaining 50% of installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources in 2025, five years ahead of the original 2030 deadline. This is a measure of installed capacity, not the proportion of electricity actually generated from non-fossil sources.
The report projects that India’s renewable power capacity could reach approximately 530 GW by 2030. Solar PV is expected to account for more than 80% of new capacity additions over the period, making it the principal driver of the next phase of expansion. Competitive auctions have helped the country secure some of the lowest solar PV generation costs globally, while procurement of hybrid renewable projects has strengthened its position in combining different generation technologies. Rooftop installations and corporate electricity procurement are also extending deployment beyond large utility-scale projects.
The manufacturing opportunity, however, involves more than increasing module output. Solar PV production spans four main stages: polysilicon processing, ingot and wafer production, cell fabrication and module assembly. Diversifying global supply chains requires stronger manufacturing capabilities across these stages, rather than concentrating production in the final assembly segment. The IEA identifies India’s expanding manufacturing base as an opportunity for a broader distribution of global production, as international markets seek alternatives to highly concentrated supply networks.
India’s manufacturing expansion has already been substantial. The National Institution for Transforming India (NITI Aayog), in a separate manufacturing-sector assessment prepared with CRISIL Intelligence, reported that solar module manufacturing capacity listed under the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) reached 100 GW by August 2025, compared with approximately 2.3 GW in 2014. Solar cell manufacturing capacity rose to 25 GW by March 2025 from less than 1.2 GW in 2014. The assessment also recorded an eightfold increase in India’s solar PV exports in fiscal 2025 compared with fiscal 2018. These figures show the scale of the domestic industry's development, although listed manufacturing capacity should not be treated as equivalent to actual annual production.
The same NITI Aayog assessment identifies important weaknesses that could limit India’s ability to become a fully diversified manufacturing source. Import dependence remains close to 100% for polysilicon, above 90% for wafers, above 60% for solar cells and above 40% for modules, measured against available supply after exports. China accounted for 93–98% of global polysilicon production capacity, 95% of wafer capacity, 91% of cell capacity and 82% of module capacity in 2024, according to the report. These figures underline why expanding domestic module assembly alone will not remove upstream supply risks.
Export concentration presents another challenge. Although Indian solar PV exports have grown, the United States accounted for 97% of the country’s PV exports in fiscal 2025, according to the NITI Aayog assessment. This creates exposure to changes in a single major overseas market. The report recommends broader access to export destinations through trade agreements, market-development support and partnerships with potential importing countries. It also identifies upstream manufacturing investment, access to specialised machinery, research and development, and skilled labour as priorities for improving competitiveness. These are recommendations from the NITI Aayog-CRISIL assessment, rather than new measures announced alongside the IEA report.
The IEA cautions that maintaining renewable energy growth will require investment beyond generation capacity. Faster development of electricity grids, energy storage and system flexibility will be necessary to integrate rising volumes of variable solar and wind power. Stronger financial positions among electricity distribution utilities and fewer project delays are also important. Addressing these constraints could increase renewable power capacity deployment by more than 20% over the 2026–2030 period, the IEA estimates.
The report places India’s renewable expansion within a wider energy-security and industrial strategy. Lower fossil fuel imports can reduce exposure to international price volatility, while a more integrated solar manufacturing ecosystem could give global buyers additional sourcing options. Realising both benefits will depend on whether India can translate its rapid growth in renewable installations and module manufacturing into stronger upstream production, competitive exports and the grid infrastructure needed to support a larger share of renewable electricity.